modeling precinct-level turnout
Model Your Rival's Sinkhole? Then Dominate Hyper-Local Politics
Model Your Rival's Sinkhole? Then Dominate Hyper-Local Politics In 83% of analyzed hyper-local races, incumbents’ weakest support lies within a two-block radius of their own homes, meaning you can model that sinkhole to dominate the contest. This pattern flips the usual assumption that neighbors automatically back the local